It’s a pretty straightforward industry. Sports betting sites are littered with advertisements for companies willing to give you their “guaranteed” picks to win for a price.
It’s alarming how many people I speak to who are sure they have an inside track for an upcoming game. What’s even scarier is how often the picks are entirely missing the mark.
However, when a selection is obvious, it’s still a waste of money. You merely aren’t wasting so much cash.
Tout services make a living preying on hapless gamblers. For every gambler that wins, I can show you one (or more) that loses.
Here are the top 7 reasons you should never buy sports picks.
Why Sports Bettors Pay for Picks
The primary reasons gamblers pay for picks are simple. For starters, everyone wants to be a winner.
If a site can convince you that they’ve got a winning formula, you’ll probably consider joining their service.
Another issue some gamblers have is time. It’s hard for some people to squeeze handicapping games between juggling work, family life, and rest.
Having “professionals” do the hard work for you frees up a massive portion of your day. You merely get to enjoy the thrills of placing winning sports bets.
Finally, some sports bettors have a fundamental lack of confidence. They put work into handicap games and may even make a great selection but don’t trust themselves.
These gamblers pay for picks hoping to confirm their choices. It’s like mowing your yard and having a landscaping company come out to make sure it’s the right height.
Sports bettors pay for picks for a myriad of reasons, but they never become long-term winners.
1 – There’s Zero Regulation on the Industry
If the medical industry were unregulated, you’d probably do exhaustive research before scheduling a surgery. You’d probably get 10-15 opinions to make sure you even needed surgery.
Because anyone with poor handwriting could pass as a medical doctor, you’d probably get several different opinions.
Sounds insane, right?
Welcome to the world of the tout service. There’s no licensing process to undergo and no universities to teach these “experts” how to handicap games.
The only requirements are a telephone number or a website. If you can create the right sales pitch, it’ll be a lucrative endeavor.
I’m not suggesting that the tout services are out to scam you. At least not in the traditional context, anyway.
Still, with so many services available, you can’t be sure what you’re getting.
2 – Sites Use Fuzzy Math to Sell Their Product
Sports bettors hold their money tight. It’s not a simple thing to convince us to fork over an additional $20 for picks on games.
So, the pick services must create something we want. As I covered above, we want to win.
That makes things easier for tout services. If they can sell the idea of winning, they’ll make money.
Recreational sports bettors rarely do the math regarding what it takes to win as a sports bettor. These gamblers are consumed with the short-term.
That makes it a breeze for tout services to throw out outlandish numbers. They often claim to have winning percentages of 5% higher than the most profitable sports bettors of all time.
That’s not likely. But because these businesses use questionable statistics, they can make it total up.
When a tout service is spewing about guaranteed winners and a long-term profitable system, they are trying to sell you on something that’s not real.
3 – It’s Eating Away at Your Wins
A major issue with paying for picks is that you’re burning more money. Sports betting has skinny margins.
To become profitable, you must win over 52% of your bets. That makes for a tall order.
Many sports bettors hover around 50%, which is basically like flipping a coin. Unfortunately, 50% is still a loser.
Every dollar you spend paying for picks will push you further into the red. If you’re losing $100 per week and pay $20 for choices, you could be losing $120.
There’s no value to be had in paying for picks. I’ve researched a few services that are hitting below 50% ATS for the NFL season.
My two-year-old daughter can do that, maybe better.
4 – You Can Find Better Information on Your Own
We live in the golden age of technology. There’s a world of information at your fingertips; use it.
There probably isn’t a single piece of data on a game that you can’t find for yourself online. What you need to discover is where to find the best information.
The clear choices are the major sports media outlets. These titans have many experts on staff and can be a tremendous source of intel.
Still, it would be best if you didn’t overlook the local beat writers for the teams in question. There’s no better source for staying up to date on the injury report and who’s playing than local reporters.
You can kick this up a level by following their social media accounts. Everyone wants to be the first to report on inside information, so they’ll give you tidbits well before the general public has the data.
5 – If You’re as Successful as the Sites Claim, You Won’t Waste Time Selling Picks
Here’s my biggest issue with tout services: if they’re winning as much as they claim, it doesn’t make any sense.
I know a few profitable sports bettors. They spend their entire day pouring over data, looking at computer models, and having runners place bets.
They don’t have the spare time to have a side hustle selling their picks.
These aren’t the true juggernauts like Billy Walters and Tony Bloom, but they are in an extremely high tax bracket.
When you get to the level they’re on, it would cost them money to waste time selling picks.
These bettors are successful but still low level compared to the greats. If they can’t afford to sell picks, how can the billionaires at the top?
6 – The Industry Preys on Weak Gamblers
As a whole, the tout services prey on weak sports bettors. I don’t mean that as a shot in any way.
You’re either not a good handicapper or don’t trust your system if you’re paying for picks. That’s evident because a winning gambler would never pay for choices.
Let that sink in for a moment. It’s remarkable how often someone will claim to be profitable and then start considering paying for picks.
If you’re the best plumber in town, you aren’t calling the other guys when you have a clogged toilet.
The reason I use the word prey is simply because that’s what it boils down to realistically.
I’ll let you in on an industry secret; not everyone gets the same picks. That’s not a typo; tout services have a business model where hedging their bets keeps the lights on.
It breaks down like this. Imagine a tout service that has a pool of 100 bettors.
The picks will go out in 50/50. So, 50 customers win and are thrilled to be alive.
That means 50 lose and are obviously confused. The tout service can’t understand what happened and give these 50 a free pick the following week.
By the law of averages, let’s say 25 of those players win. The tout service now has 75 happy customers.
A new wave of weary gamblers replaces the 25 that lost back to back. The cycle continues in this fashion for as long as the tout service can bring in new customers.
Does paying for picks sound like a viable path to financial freedom?
7 – Tout Service Won’t Make You a Winner
The number one reason you should never buy picks is that the tout service won’t make you a winner.
If someone’s making money sports betting, they won’t need to sell picks. That means only losers have the time to open a tout service.
You’ll have better long-term success by focusing on becoming a better sports bettor. I won’t tell you it’s easy, but I can say it’ll be worth it.
What You Should Do Instead
Instead of throwing money down the drain, focus on developing your skills.
Finding time to do research will be paramount to the success you have in the sportsbook. It’s amazing how little research is necessary to make improvements to your winning percentage.
Another area of improvement for many sports bettors is the type of action being placed. It’s vital that you don’t try to outsmart the sportsbooks for more significant wins.
Merely betting traditionally will give you the best chance to develop a profitable system.
Continue striving to be a better sports bettor, and you’ll see better results. Before long, you’ll be outperforming the tout services, and you’ll be saving money in the process.
The top 7 reasons you should never buy sports picks may seem like a slam piece on the companies selling picks. However, I’m hoping to get you to become a better sports bettor.
Sportsbooks are tough to beat, and there’s plenty of room at the table for winners. Stop using the tout services as a crutch and be a better gambler.